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Mark Schlegel Australia (Verified User) Posts 3168 Dogs 9 / Races 5 14 Jul 2015 23:26
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So......for the first six months of this year we have had 1090 services versus 1468 for the same period last year (a 25% drop).
Fairly obvious that the policies of the various State boards have had an immediate and DRASTIC effect on industry participants.
Say goodbye to YOUR industry people. Not long now before we have cancellations of meetings, track closures, prizemoney reductions......
.....and some people still think everything is going fine.....it will all blow over.....nothing to see here folks!
Idiots!
Anthony McVicker Australia (Verified User) Posts 1438 Dogs 24 / Races 126 14 Jul 2015 23:57
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IMO Wait until end Sept and then look at the last 6 months for a better picture of the effects since Feb and LB
A more worrying stat at present is the number of registered broods on the new pink card system in nsw. Maybe the paperback and people being slow to rego will correct these numbers in the next 3-4mths
Michael Bowerman Australia (Verified User) Posts 4614 Dogs 11 / Races 0 15 Jul 2015 00:00
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just because services are down to six in mid winter doesnt mean the end of our sport, i bet in twelve months time we will be going stronger than ever,1400 od sevices to 1000 od sevices this year doesnt meant any thing as breeders would be waiting for pups to be broken in, got nothing to do with down turn, seem that some pups are not selling because most trainers wont race dogs not pups.
Steve Bennie Australia (Verified User) Posts 697 Dogs 11 / Races 2 15 Jul 2015 00:22
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Mick you are spot on, just been talking to Tony Wiseman at sires on ice he said june -july stats for 2015 just the same as last year.
Anthony McVicker Australia (Verified User) Posts 1438 Dogs 24 / Races 126 15 Jul 2015 00:39
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Make your own mind up, these are the stats
AU Stud Dog Service Stats from 1/1/14 to 30/6/15 4217 Services registered 79.5% Frozen 20.5% Nat 386 Different Sires Used 212 Sires or 54.9% have had 1 or 2 services
Most popular overall
Sire Total BARCIA BALE 305 FABREGAS 268 COSMIC RUMBLE 217 SPRING GUN 185 MAGIC SPRITE 169 LOCHINVAR MARLOW 136 BEKIM BALE 122 SWIFT FANCY 112 COLLISION 97 EL GRAND SENOR 95 CAPE HAWKE 87 DYNA TRON 69 VEE MAN VANE 68 GLEN GALLON 68 OAKS ROAD 67 SHAKEY JAKEY 65 NOLEN 62 BANJO BOY 62 COSMIC CHIEF 58 KINLOCH BRAE 57 DJAYS OCTANE 47 PREMIER BOLONEY 44 FEAR ZAFONIC 40 DYNA LACHLAN 37 JARVIS BALE 36 SURF LORIAN 33 DON'T KNOCKA HIM 33 SMOOTH FANCY 32 NITRO BURST 32 WHERE'S PEDRO 30 BELLA INFRARED 29 ZULU ZEUS 27
Most popular natural services
Sire Total NOLEN 52 SHAKEY JAKEY 38 SWIFT FANCY 35 MAGIC SPRITE 34 LOCHINVAR MARLOW 30 PREMIER BOLONEY 25 SMOOTH FANCY 20 FEAR ZAFONIC 19 BRALYN COUNTY 17 VEE MAN VANE 16 DON'T KNOCKA HIM 16 TOMAC BALE 15 JARVIS BALE 15 ZULU ZEUS 14 FANCY DEAN 14 NITRO BURST 13
Mark Schlegel Australia (Verified User) Posts 3168 Dogs 9 / Races 5 15 Jul 2015 00:52
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Previously, I did the "Litters whelped" figures for Victoria.
For the first six months of this year, total litters whelped was 490. For the same 6 months of 2014 there were 620 litters whelped in VIC.
Whelpings have dropped 21% in 12 months.
Now we know that services Australia wide have followed almost the exact same pattern.
To put that into perspective.........I had a look at the same 6 month period in 2013 for "Litters whelped" figures for Victoria.
In the first 6 months of 2013 there were 1685 litters whelped in Vic.
I'll say that again so the wilfully ignorant can actually comprehend it.
In the first 6 months of 2013 there were 1685 litters whelped in Vic!!!!!
So, in the space of two years we have seen a drop in litters whelped (just in VIC) of 1195 litters!
For the 6 month period in question.......WHELPED LITTERS HAVE DROPPED 71% in TWO years!
How much further do they have to drop before you think there is a problem???
EDIT: Just out of curiosity, I also looked at the following years.....
Jamie in my opionion that's a stupid comment, I just gave away a very nice brood but financially it wasn't worth breeding with her due to if she had a litter bigger than 4 I couldn't afford to pay the rearing let alone find a good rearer to my standard. And why would I sell them for nothing if she had more and give someone pick of sumthing I have outlayed money on. I personally am treading very slowly at the moment waiting to see how things go by the end of the year. I always have 4-5 pups being reared a year and by myself that is not cheap but I do enjoy it. I hope things turn around but the above stats show worrying times for a while.
Personally I think its a bit like the stock market crash. Numbers drop drastically, then gradually build back up to where they were previously. And like the stock market, it will be the ones that jump in while the numbers are down that reap the rewards. Warren Buffett always said the best time to buy stocks is when everyone else is selling. Or in my world, the best time to plant mandarin trees is when everyone else is ripping theirs out.
So yes it appears the breeding numbers are dropping but when someone comes on here and predicts the end of our sport..... now that is a stupid comment.
Anthony McVicker Australia (Verified User) Posts 1438 Dogs 24 / Races 126 15 Jul 2015 03:52
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Jamie
I didn't say and nor am I inferring the industry will close I simply put up the facts, make your own mind up
Having said that considering the direction we are currently going what makes you think this is the stock market and its just a cycle and it will recover and be happy ever after.
NB For those outside NSW, GRNSW released a survey yest and this was one of the questions
Do you think the greyhound racing industry in NSW should be shut down?
What makes me think it's cyclical? Thats just the way I feel mate. I'm not interested in stats or predictions. It's a bit of a bad time right now. In 10 years it will be booming again.
And in 10 years, I will still be racing my dogs and having the best time of my life doing it.
Anthony Jeffress Australia (Verified User) Posts 3669 Dogs 54 / Races 10 15 Jul 2015 06:23
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As I commented earlier elsewhere, I personally believe a SMALL reduction in litters bred would have been beneficial; HOWEVER to have had such a DRASTIC fallaway in the past 3 months may have detrimental medium to long term effects.
Somewhere around an average of 250 per month would, in my view, help sustain a healthy, viable industry, and meet the various 'demands' (ie, supply of race product roughly in line with the present racing schedule).
If it were to drop "longer term" and through the Spring months BELOW that sort of level, it may spell time for some serious "action".
IF this recent reduction is anything to do with the apparent National "aims" of "reducing breeding and improving quality", it may already be time for a somewhat urgent re-think on behalf of the relevant Authorities. But of course, that would imply / require there to actually BE a "thought process" in play! :-)
Seems to me that its most likely the combination of the above (ie, the threatened "scaling back" on being "allowed" to breed with certain bitches eg, those over 8yo; those with below-average results from earlier progeny; etc), along with the aftermath of the "Greyhound Armageddon" we watched unfold starting from February this year.
Steve Bennie Australia (Verified User) Posts 697 Dogs 11 / Races 2 15 Jul 2015 07:19
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Anthony what did you expect from Hewson he is a polie and he is only moving up the ladder, he will not tread on anyone toes. That is why they ask a stupid questions like that and try and keep everyone happy.
Anthony McVicker wrote:
Jamie
I didn't say and nor am I inferring the industry will close I simply put up the facts, make your own mind up
Having said that considering the direction we are currently going what makes you think this is the stock market and its just a cycle and it will recover and be happy ever after.
NB For those outside NSW, GRNSW released a survey yest and this was one of the questions
Do you think the greyhound racing industry in NSW should be shut down?
Michael Bowerman Australia (Verified User) Posts 4614 Dogs 11 / Races 0 15 Jul 2015 07:29
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trent wrigley wrote:
Jamie in my opionion that's a stupid comment, I just gave away a very nice brood but financially it wasn't worth breeding with her due to if she had a litter bigger than 4 I couldn't afford to pay the rearing let alone find a good rearer to my standard. And why would I sell them for nothing if she had more and give someone pick of sumthing I have outlayed money on. I personally am treading very slowly at the moment waiting to see how things go by the end of the year. I always have 4-5 pups being reared a year and by myself that is not cheap but I do enjoy it. I hope things turn around but the above stats show worrying times for a while.
trent did u try and see if someone would go half or quater of pups cost to.this is why i not breeding its nothing to do with whats gone on my budget would only alow for 2 or 4 pups at most, i think this is whats slowing breeding is cost, breeders start having winners they keep breeding jmo
Mark Schlegel Australia (Verified User) Posts 3168 Dogs 9 / Races 5 15 Jul 2015 09:10
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I have to apologise for a serious stuff up with the figures I quoted above.
Unfortunately I neglected to tick the "Show Victorian Litters Only" box.....so the 1990-2013 figures I gave are for Australia wide.
If I do the same for 2014 and 2015 we get 1749 and 1414 litters whelped respectively.
That means whelpings have been slowly dropping from the highs of 15 years ago.....but then they have plunged 20% in just the last 12 months.
335 litters less than 12 months ago is a significant drop and a big worry considering we are still to see the full impact of the decisions made in the last few months.
I sincerely apologise for my mistake (in my defense I was supposed to be working, not researching whelping figures).......
Anthony McVicker Australia (Verified User) Posts 1438 Dogs 24 / Races 126 15 Jul 2015 09:38
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stats were compiled from GRV, GRNSW and GA published data.
I also have access to various other industry databases i.e frozen semen database.
Interestingly I have seen the list of approved pink card registered broods for NSW at this stage with their breeding history amongst other data sources
Mark, please note their is a temporary data integrity issue with services/litters on the GRV fasttrack database at present, IT are looking at, so be carefully when quoting numbers
Cheers
Billy Ferguson Australia (Verified User) Posts 442 Dogs 0 / Races 0 15 Jul 2015 19:06
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That's called pragmatism Steve, it's similar to what happened prior to WW2 everyone saw what was happening and did nothing
Do you have questions about breeding theories? 
