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Darren Leeson Australia (Verified User) Posts 1342 Dogs 154 / Races 139 22 Jun 2020 21:02
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Sandro Bechini wrote:
Jamie Quinlivian wrote:
Anthony McVicker wrote:
While the stats look good, I note Aussie Infared has 7 pups running and Wormburner 8 for 15 and 11 starters.
I only look at sires with min 100 starters for a guide over 12mths
That's correct for the metro tracks. And if 100 starters is your guide, then you only have Fernando or Barcia to choose from, with 156 and 199 starters. Next best is Kinloch with 65.
In the all tracks stats, Aussie has 41 starters for 76 wins. EGS has 71 for 142 wins.
And there you have it...the sire list is so heavily skewed to less than a handful of sires, the reporting systems that the industry has at its disposal cannot identify the hidden gems of stud dogs that are sitting underneath the top few , unless percentage stats are kept to see the clearer picture
Too make it even clearer, then successful matings, being it city winners should have nick ratings assessed for all the broods that have successfully produced to any given sire to assess what bloodlines are the best nicks to look for
Exactly, furthermore to my mention above of My Bro Fabio to Bekim Bale broods standing at 64% city winners to pups born. As opposed to My Bro Fabio to all breeds standing at 13% city winners to pups born.
Isolating the nick between Bekim Bale and Zarbo still stands at an exceptional 57% city winners to pups born. Any wonder a generation on My Bro Fabio the Zarbo dam line continues to nick exceptionally well to Bekim Bale.......
Jamie Quinlivian Australia (Verified User) Posts 8727 Dogs 10 / Races 0 22 Jun 2020 23:20
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Totally agree that homework is essential and Darren, you are clearly into your homework. This is why I felt the need just to add a different dimension to the top 20 sires list on fasttrack, because it simply shows Fernando and Barcia as clearly the best sires, which is inaccurate. But to some breeders, apparently quite a lot.....the list provided by fasttrack is homework enough.
The same goes for the top trainers list, which is usually the case of whoever has the most dogs will get the trainer of the year. It's far from accurate.
By the way Darren, would that nick work both ways? As in, a Fabio bitch going to Bekim? Or a son of Bekim?
Darren Leeson Australia (Verified User) Posts 1342 Dogs 154 / Races 139 23 Jun 2020 04:42
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Spot on Jamie and why we see some sires praised and especially others bagged by the general public. Its never as black and white as people express!
The nick will embed itself in either a sire or a dam in generations to come. Itll still work regardless if its in a sire or dam.
Just a pity many wrote off Bekim Bale as a sire and found too many negatives to breed on with their Bekim broods. As hes proving to be gold!
CLICK HERE Another one tonite with that nic wins at warragul over the 680m, big run too
Darren Leeson Australia (Verified User) Posts 1342 Dogs 154 / Races 139 24 Jun 2020 22:34
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Its a phenomenal litter Mark, prize money around $300,000!!
Furthermore to Jamies point above...Ive just had my city winning bitch Pennybacker come in season yesterday. Why the need to pay $6600-8,800 for Fernando Bale or $8800 for Barcia Bale. When you can spend $2500 for Fabregas.
Fabregas produces 13% city winners to pups born, but crossed with a Broodbitch carrying Big Daddy Cool in her pedigree produces 31% city winners to pups born.
Compare this to the No. 1 sire Fernando Bale to any breed 20% city winners to pups born and Barcia Bale (15%) and you are 11% more likely to get a city winner from a Fabregas / Big Daddy Cool mating than randomly buying a Fernando Bale pup and double the chance than randomly buying a Barcia Bale pup! Its good reason WHY you see ordinary racebitches offspring be upgraded by a sire!
Fabregas top offspring same genes carried in Pennybacker.
1. Aston Bolero - (Sobbing Sal, Bay Road Queen) Head Honcho dam line - dam no city wins
2. No Donuts - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Token Prince) - dam no city wins
3. Dundee Osprey - (Sobbing Sal) - dam no city wins
4. Fabregal - (Primo Uno, Sobbing Sal, Head Honcho) - dam no city wins
5. Pindari Express - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Token Prince) - dam Cannington (WA) city winner 30.40
6. Black Forge - (Just The Best, Head Honcho) - dam no city wins
7. Falcons Fury - (Just The Best) - dam no city wins
8. Big Ticket (Just The Best & Prima Portrait dam of Primo Uno) - dam no city wins
9. Black Frenzy - (2x Sobbing Sal, Head Honcho) - dam Wentworth Park city winner 30.27
10. Kouta Mayhem - (Sobbing Sal, Head Honcho) - dam no city wins
11. Chasin Crackers - (Sobbing Sal) - dam Group race performer.
12. Shes Gifted - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best) - dam no city wins
13. Max Profit - (Sobbing Sal, Head Honcho) - dam no city win
17. My Little Mate - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Silent Emotion) - dam NZ champion.
18. Caitlin Keeping - (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best ) - dam no city wins.
19. Paul Dozer - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Token Prince) - dam no city wins
21. Zipping Midge - (Sobbing Sal, Bay Road Queen in Token Prince) - dam Wentworth Park city winner 29.69
22. Comacho - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Token Prince) - dam Meadows city winner 42.84
28. Two Jay - (Premier Fantasy, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Token Prince) - dam Wentworth city winner 30.24
29. Nangar Diva - 2x Sobbing Sal, Head Honcho - dam Wentworth Park city winner 30.30
33. Shot Clock - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best)- dam Albion Park city winner 35.40
35. Are Jip - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best) & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Token Prince - dam Wentworth Park city winner 30.05
Kilty Lad produces 13% city winners to pups born. However, mated to a bitch carrying Bombastic Shiraz both sharing the Semester dam line produce 18% city winners to pups born.compare this to any breed to Fernando Bale (20%) Barcia Bale (15%).
Kilty Lad top offspring shared genes with Fabregas
Kayda Shae - Head Honcho , Black Shiraz dam line Kilty Express - Bombastic Shiraz Kiltah Magic - Awesome Assassin Micks Angel - Head Honcho Coco Potion - Larkhill Jo (massive cross in Ireland with Head Honcho), Awesome Assassin Crackerjack Max - Bombastic Shiraz Virouette - Awesome Assassin, Head Honcho, Phantom Flash, (Larkhill Jo dam line)
2nd top offspring.
Sisco Ride - Awesome Assassin, 2x Head Homcho Naturally Gifted - Head Honcho
All points to a top class mating of Fabregas x Pennybacker
PENNYBACKER Wentworth Park city winner 30.22 - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Pennybackers direct tail dam line being Bonnie Chariot (litter sister to Tenthill Flyer). 2x Head Honcho, Primo Uno, Premier Fantasy
Sam Watson Australia (Verified User) Posts 315 Dogs 0 / Races 0 25 Jun 2020 01:33
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Good research Darren.
what is your usual strategy? look at the top 35 progeny of a sire and see if they have any common ancestors with you broodie that has worked?
Darren Leeson Australia (Verified User) Posts 1342 Dogs 154 / Races 139 25 Jun 2020 02:44
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Sam,
A sires top offspring is a logical place to start. As we all want to breed and purchase top class pups! However, its just a starting point. Clearly Big Daddy Cool stands out in Fabregas top offspring, but then to really know how decent it is...you need to do the extremely arduous task of cross checking it in any racing age greyhound that carries the cross. That percentage comes out at 31% city winners to pups born. Well ahead of randomly buying from the likes of Fernando Bale (20%) and Barcia Bale (15%). The most important of KPIs. And backs up what Jamie has been saying in this topic!
Even in many other Fabregas top offspring you can find isolated shared genes of Sobbing Sal and Just The Best...Bay Road Queen. The make up of Big Daddy Cool!
Add to that Kilty Lad has shown a great propensity to nick with numerous genes found in Fabregas - namely Bombastic Shiraz, Head Honcho, Awesome Assassin, Larkhill Jo.
And you have a far better % than randomly purchasing a Fernando Bale pup (20%) or Barcia Bale (15%). Again, why you even see a lesser sire appear to upgrade a broods offspring and a more high profile sire not...you need to read between the lines!
Its uncanny how many average racebitches make up Fabregas top offspring, but when you dissect them all...a common pattern emerges!
Jamie Quinlivian Australia (Verified User) Posts 8727 Dogs 10 / Races 0 25 Jun 2020 03:52
CLICK HERE The dam of our bitch had a previous litter to Barcia and a subsequent litter to Fernando. While some of the Fernandos have not yet hit the track, I would definitely say the the Fabio litter is the pick of the 3.
Darren Leeson Australia (Verified User) Posts 1342 Dogs 154 / Races 139 25 Jun 2020 06:27
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There you go Jamie. As we both know, just putting a bitch to Fernando Bale or Barcia, regardless of perceived superiority. Is still a greater recipe for a poorer litter than another perceived lesser sire. As my original example of Big Flood showed and you have shown!
Best of luck with what looks a sound mating!
Jimmy Corbo Australia (Verified User) Posts 435 Dogs 16 / Races 126 25 Jun 2020 22:26
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Nice work Darren, with that level of research you deserve every success that comes your way.
Darren Leeson wrote:
Its a phenomenal litter Mark, prize money around $300,000!!
Furthermore to Jamies point above...Ive just had my city winning bitch Pennybacker come in season yesterday. Why the need to pay $6600-8,800 for Fernando Bale or $8800 for Barcia Bale. When you can spend $2500 for Fabregas.
Fabregas produces 13% city winners to pups born, but crossed with a Broodbitch carrying Big Daddy Cool in her pedigree produces 31% city winners to pups born.
Compare this to the No. 1 sire Fernando Bale to any breed 20% city winners to pups born and Barcia Bale (15%) and you are 11% more likely to get a city winner from a Fabregas / Big Daddy Cool mating than randomly buying a Fernando Bale pup and double the chance than randomly buying a Barcia Bale pup! Its good reason WHY you see ordinary racebitches offspring be upgraded by a sire!
Fabregas top offspring same genes carried in Pennybacker.
1. Aston Bolero - (Sobbing Sal, Bay Road Queen) Head Honcho dam line - dam no city wins
2. No Donuts - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Token Prince) - dam no city wins
3. Dundee Osprey - (Sobbing Sal) - dam no city wins
4. Fabregal - (Primo Uno, Sobbing Sal, Head Honcho) - dam no city wins
5. Pindari Express - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Token Prince) - dam Cannington (WA) city winner 30.40
6. Black Forge - (Just The Best, Head Honcho) - dam no city wins
7. Falcons Fury - (Just The Best) - dam no city wins
8. Big Ticket (Just The Best & Prima Portrait dam of Primo Uno) - dam no city wins
9. Black Frenzy - (2x Sobbing Sal, Head Honcho) - dam Wentworth Park city winner 30.27
10. Kouta Mayhem - (Sobbing Sal, Head Honcho) - dam no city wins
11. Chasin Crackers - (Sobbing Sal) - dam Group race performer.
12. Shes Gifted - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best) - dam no city wins
13. Max Profit - (Sobbing Sal, Head Honcho) - dam no city win
17. My Little Mate - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Silent Emotion) - dam NZ champion.
18. Caitlin Keeping - (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best ) - dam no city wins.
19. Paul Dozer - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Token Prince) - dam no city wins
21. Zipping Midge - (Sobbing Sal, Bay Road Queen in Token Prince) - dam Wentworth Park city winner 29.69
22. Comacho - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Token Prince) - dam Meadows city winner 42.84
28. Two Jay - (Premier Fantasy, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Token Prince) - dam Wentworth city winner 30.24
29. Nangar Diva - 2x Sobbing Sal, Head Honcho - dam Wentworth Park city winner 30.30
33. Shot Clock - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best)- dam Albion Park city winner 35.40
35. Are Jip - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best) & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Token Prince - dam Wentworth Park city winner 30.05
Kilty Lad produces 13% city winners to pups born. However, mated to a bitch carrying Bombastic Shiraz both sharing the Semester dam line produce 18% city winners to pups born.compare this to any breed to Fernando Bale (20%) Barcia Bale (15%).
Kilty Lad top offspring shared genes with Fabregas
Kayda Shae - Head Honcho , Black Shiraz dam line Kilty Express - Bombastic Shiraz Kiltah Magic - Awesome Assassin Micks Angel - Head Honcho Coco Potion - Larkhill Jo (massive cross in Ireland with Head Honcho), Awesome Assassin Crackerjack Max - Bombastic Shiraz Virouette - Awesome Assassin, Head Honcho, Phantom Flash, (Larkhill Jo dam line)
2nd top offspring.
Sisco Ride - Awesome Assassin, 2x Head Homcho Naturally Gifted - Head Honcho
All points to a top class mating of Fabregas x Pennybacker
PENNYBACKER Wentworth Park city winner 30.22 - Big Daddy Cool (Sobbing Sal, Just The Best & extra line of Bay Road Queen in Pennybackers direct tail dam line being Bonnie Chariot (litter sister to Tenthill Flyer). 2x Head Honcho, Primo Uno, Premier Fantasy
Darren Leeson Australia (Verified User) Posts 1342 Dogs 154 / Races 139 25 Jun 2020 23:29
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Thanks Jimmy.
My thinking if youre going to spend thousands of dollars on either breeding a litter or purchasing a pup. You should do as much research as possible. Always been of the belief the harder you work the luckier you become.
I actually missed [only] one in all my hours of research. Keybow carrying Big Daddy Cool.
And what do you know. A Fabregas brood went to him and produced 4/8 city winners 50% city winners to pups born! If Ledekey had a touch more stamina...itd be 5/8 city winners and 63%
Keybow brings in again to Fabregas - Big Daddy Cool and an extra line of both Sobbing Sal (Brett Lee) and Bay Road Queen (Captain Standby). Just as so many of those previous examples I showed! And again the dam no city wins!
Thanks again for the kind words!
Jamie Quinlivian Australia (Verified User) Posts 8727 Dogs 10 / Races 0 26 Jun 2020 00:28
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Darren, a question without notice. If you breed one successful litter, then the second litter from the brood was not as good, would you consider putting a bitch from the second litter, to the sire of the first litter?
Hope that makes sense.
Darren Leeson Australia (Verified User) Posts 1342 Dogs 154 / Races 139 26 Jun 2020 02:25
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Jamie,
Thats sound logic. So long as the 1/4 part diluted away from the first litter pedigree is suitable. Plenty of 3/4 matings work. A big key as Ive shown throughout this topic is blood nicking with each other, is far more important than needing the likes of Fernando Bale or Barcia Bale!
(Paper Jet = 3/4 True To Do)...Wary Suspect / Worth Doing (Railway Road = 100% Amerigo Magic)...West Cape / Amerigo Man (Elite State = 100% MLadys Fool)...repeat mating, both to Just The Best (Ostis Idol = 100% Gun Law Osti)...litter sisters to Brother Fox (Special Cyndie = 3/4 Cyndies Magic) (Prankster = 3/4 Bit Chili) (Gable Drum = 3/4 One Tree Hill)
Im doing same with the previously mentioned Ballinderry Girl to My Bro Fabio. Making them 3/4 to Frieda Las Vegas. However, as I showed this 3/4 mating is stronger on paper than the FLV mating. Byway of Bekim Bales outstanding nick with Fabio!
One example I always reference in a similar vain...is National Lass to Brother Fox for no success. Yet to his son Worth Doing and Amerigo Man great success.
Subtlety in pedigree can be massive. The Brother Fox mating is missing key ingredients!
Darren Leeson Australia (Verified User) Posts 1342 Dogs 154 / Races 139 09 Jul 2020 07:53
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Darren Leeson wrote:
Thanks Jimmy.
My thinking if youre going to spend thousands of dollars on either breeding a litter or purchasing a pup. You should do as much research as possible. Always been of the belief the harder you work the luckier you become.
I actually missed [only] one in all my hours of research. Keybow carrying Big Daddy Cool.
And what do you know. A Fabregas brood went to him and produced 4/8 city winners 50% city winners to pups born! If Ledekey had a touch more stamina...itd be 5/8 city winners and 63%
Keybow brings in again to Fabregas - Big Daddy Cool and an extra line of both Sobbing Sal (Brett Lee) and Bay Road Queen (Captain Standby). Just as so many of those previous examples I showed! And again the dam no city wins!
Thanks again for the kind words!
Another new litter of rockets with the Fabregas / Big Daddy Cool (Keybow) cross - Bow Baby wins the first at Albion Park 29.96
You dont need Fernando Bale to produce high quality racers!
Paul Bushell Australia (Verified User) Posts 466 Dogs 67 / Races 453 14 Jul 2020 05:49
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When did percentages become greater than 100? A percentage is out of 100, hence 100 being the best anyone could reach! Can anyone answer?
Kevin Wright Australia (Verified User) Posts 5708 Dogs 1 / Races 1 14 Jul 2020 06:25
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Paul Bushell wrote:
When did percentages become greater than 100? A percentage is out of 100, hence 100 being the best anyone could reach! Can anyone answer?
You are correct ...Paul
100 percent is 100 Percent ..nothing more
Ryan Vanderwert Australia (Verified User) Posts 5957 Dogs 8 / Races 0 14 Jul 2020 06:50
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Jamie Quinlivian wrote:
I know there are probably more important issues in the world at present but this really gives me the hard hits!!! About 30 odd years ago, some coach of some sporting club came up with a line about one of his players who had tried his hardest throughout the entire contest. The coach said "yeah he never gives in, always gives 110%" Now back then, it was a very effective statement, everyone knew what the coach meant and it was a huge compliment to the player concerned. But then it sort of became popular, to such an extent that giving 110% was pretty much standard, in fact if any player only gave 100%, he might not get selected for the next game. Over the last few years, the expected effort required from any player had jumped to 120%. And it wasn't just humans that were achieving this remarkable level, apparently some horses were also giving 120%. Now, of course, 200% seems to be required before a player can get some appreciation from his/her coach. But there is a new breed of superhero that can go far beyond the achievements of any sport star that has ever lived, including Federer, Pele, Gretzky, Bolt, Phelps, Wally Lewis, Gary Ablett and even Warnie!!! I'm talking about the reality TV star. Recently I happened to be walking past the TV as my wife was watching some horrible piece of useless rubbish and I heard one of the contestants say that she "always gives 500%" Enough is enough. Thus, I have been prompted to start a world wide campaign to put a stop to this and to restore the maximum level of output back to it's original 100%. Please help this campaign. Next time you are talking to a mate about a particular sporting contest, be sure to state emphatically that a certain participant gave 100%. If your mate looks at you and says "geez I thought he gave more than that" be sure to slap him and point out the stupidity of what he just said.
Nothing has changed Ryan. I'm sure you know that. As the above comedy sketch states, nobody can give 100% EFFORT. That's impossible.
However, if somebody invests $12 on a box trifecta which wins and pays $75, guess what? You win $150 because your investment was 200%
Keep digging Ryan.
Paul, if Fernando Bale has 100 offspring who win 50 races in the city, that reads 50%. But if his 100 offspring win 200 races in the city, that reads 200%.
Steven Martin Australia (Verified User) Posts 7681 Dogs 180 / Races 66 14 Jul 2020 19:45
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Jamie Quinlivian wrote:
if Fernando Bale has 100 offspring who win 50 races in the city, that reads 50%. But if his 100 offspring win 200 races in the city, that reads 200%.
Why would I want to know that stat for Jamie?
I want to know what % of his offspring exactly win in the city....& that will never be 100% or more %.
If you accumulate more then 12.33%, you're better than average.
Darren Leeson Australia (Verified User) Posts 1342 Dogs 154 / Races 139 14 Jul 2020 20:34
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steven martin wrote:
I want to know what % of his offspring exactly win in the city....& that will never be 100% or more %.
If you accumulate more then 12.33%, you're better than average.
Is it really better than average? It can get so much better [or worse] than those base numbers of a sire...its closer to your lottery number in the draw! Regardless of being #1 or #100 on the sires list!
Even with sire % its breeders and their broods that control the %
Earlier in this topic I used the example of Bekim Bale proving an exceptional broodsire...to the right sire that is.....
My Bro Fabio to all breeds has a 13% city winners to pups born. However to a Bekim Bale brood it goes up to 64% city winners to pups born.
Fernando Bale to all breeds has a 20% city winners to pups born. However, to a Bekim Bale brood it goes up to 44%
Flip side...
Barcia Bale to all breeds has a 16% city winners to pups born. However, to a Bekim Bale brood it drops by half to only 8%.
Do you have questions about breeding theories? 
