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Just adding to this topic, without inviting the clown..!!, Have a look at the dog for sale, Thirsty Friday, 34 starts not one box 1 ....
Well that didnt take long Mal,dear oh dear oh dear,PMSL!!!
Nope, just like a bad smell, IT lingers....
Paul Dicks Australia (Verified User) Posts 10281 Dogs 120 / Races 252 19 Sep 2022 05:31
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Whoever this clown is he must be bloody annoying, he sounds like a right royal pain in the proverbial. The sort if bloke who doesn't realise he is the clown.
Jason Caley Australia (Verified User) Posts 385 Dogs 6 / Races 0 19 Sep 2022 13:41
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I said years ago (easily 3 years ago), there's this thing with computers. True random just means, hey I got 8 numbers to select.
Then there's this thing called exclusive/selective random.
Now I got shitcanned and boo-hooed last time I raised it,
But i'll say it again anyway.. why not do the draw, and if number matches (say in a field of 8) - two runners had same draw as last time, swap them.
If only one runner had box 1 last start (randomly draw that 1 against the field of 7 others so that 1 can have any draw except 1).
Seriously from a computer programming perspective this shit isn't hard.. it is precisely how leaves appear animated on trees or rain drops appear random on a computer game.
The only folks it annoys are the large kennels and preferred children that just keep "randomly" drawing whatever box suits their dog.
If you wish to eliminate the illusion or reality of collusion, just switch the algorithm to state: wherever a duplicate number drawn (eg. box 6 previously - redraw against those who did not).
It isn't a hard problem to solve - but true random rarely is - except where people and money are involved.
Easy programming fix but while even debates here are divided the impropriety will continue.
Paul Dicks Australia (Verified User) Posts 10281 Dogs 120 / Races 252 19 Sep 2022 21:56
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Your proposed system makes it less random.
Forget all this Box Draw conspiracy theory BS, surely money would be better spent implementing a preferential box draw system.
Jason Caley Australia (Verified User) Posts 385 Dogs 6 / Races 0 20 Sep 2022 03:34
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Paul Dicks wrote:
Your proposed system makes it less random.
Forget all this Box Draw conspiracy theory BS, surely money would be better spent implementing a preferential box draw system.
Actually over the entirety of a dogs career and form - the system I proposed makes it truly random.
True random is never used in computer lotteries or in gaming because it does not reflect real life.
i used the example of trees and rain-drops.
The system I proposed would mean you never see a straight consecutive run of 4444 or 1111 against a runner. You may see 44 or 11 but not the way it is now when you only use 8 combinations at max, presuming a full field.
Anyway I'd love to discuss mathematics with you and string theory but frankly I only posted this (repeat) so maybe one day someone in a position of power pays attention.
True random is never random with only 8 combinations. That's why no state runs a lottery based on only 8 numbers ;)
A generic lottery equation using way more than eight combinations works like this - Random*Random/Random (this way the computer randoms selects three digits and equates them. But that's actually better than just having code go Random that's it that's all. You could argue that's not true random.. but it works for way more than 8 combos anyway).
It's not often we agree,but i must say,that this would be advantageous for racing & decreasing interferance out of the boxes,& the run into & through the first turn,so yes,i agree with you Paul,but the prospect of this happening is probably slim,like going back to the " banjo" box draw system...maybe not in our time anyway.
Tony Digiorgio Australia (Verified User) Posts 1008 Dogs 25 / Races 0 20 Sep 2022 19:25
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A bitch I currently have an interest in drew box 8 its first 3 starts. Hardly random.
Jason, what happens when there is less than 8 numbers to be drawn? If boxes 3&6 are vacant, or if box 5 is vacant, dogs that drew those boxes at their previous start will not get those boxes which will throw the random system out.
Jason Caley Australia (Verified User) Posts 385 Dogs 6 / Races 0 21 Sep 2022 11:25
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Tony Digiorgio wrote:
A bitch I currently have an interest in drew box 8 its first 3 starts. Hardly random.
Jason, what happens when there is less than 8 numbers to be drawn? If boxes 3&6 are vacant, or if box 5 is vacant, dogs that drew those boxes at their previous start will not get those boxes which will throw the random system out.
In your example say the dog got box 3 or 6 in an eight dog race, it won't anyway when it goes into a 6 dog race.
If you drew box 2 in the six dog race and end up the next week in a 7 dog race, you will draw any number but 2.
That said there'll always be cases where several starters may have drawn the same box at their prior start. One runner will probably end up having to get the same box again.
That said over the course of a dogs career you may see a 11 or a 44 in a row but you won't see it anywhere near as much as happens today.
The algorithm tries to reduce duplicate draws in a row but it cannot eliminate it. Not if say a field is built where 3 runners last drew box 3, and the other four all drew 7. That happens. So duplicates will happen - but not as often.
Play a computer heads or tails coin game. With only two selections Heads or Tails you will always get consecutive results ( a run of heads or a run of tails) no matter what method is used to calculate random.
Paul Dicks Australia (Verified User) Posts 10281 Dogs 120 / Races 252 31 Jul 2023 11:20
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For all you Box Draw Conspiracy Theorists. Queensland are being proactive.
Victoria have been doing that for years and it makes no difference. It's a computer system so it cannot be random. My example is Keno v Powerball. Keno is a computer system which gathers the information fed into it and draws out numbers. Not random. The results are dependent on certain factors. Powerball is done completely randomly. No computer system involved.
Whether its done live or in a secret, it still uses the computer system.
Greg Russell Australia (Verified User) Posts 107 Dogs 0 / Races 0 01 Aug 2023 00:31
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Jason Caley wrote:
Tony Digiorgio wrote:
A bitch I currently have an interest in drew box 8 its first 3 starts. Hardly random.
Jason, what happens when there is less than 8 numbers to be drawn? If boxes 3&6 are vacant, or if box 5 is vacant, dogs that drew those boxes at their previous start will not get those boxes which will throw the random system out.
In your example say the dog got box 3 or 6 in an eight dog race, it won't anyway when it goes into a 6 dog race.
If you drew box 2 in the six dog race and end up the next week in a 7 dog race, you will draw any number but 2.
That said there'll always be cases where several starters may have drawn the same box at their prior start. One runner will probably end up having to get the same box again.
That said over the course of a dogs career you may see a 11 or a 44 in a row but you won't see it anywhere near as much as happens today.
The algorithm tries to reduce duplicate draws in a row but it cannot eliminate it. Not if say a field is built where 3 runners last drew box 3, and the other four all drew 7. That happens. So duplicates will happen - but not as often.
Play a computer heads or tails coin game. With only two selections Heads or Tails you will always get consecutive results ( a run of heads or a run of tails) no matter what method is used to calculate random.
Totally agree with Jason here. From an IT and scientific perspective the ongoing use of the term "random" to justify the current process is misleading, although I am sure the process is random based on current IT technology. I have said before that a random draw does not mean a fair draw over the course of a dog's racing career and across a large pool of racing dogs. Every IT process has business rules and limiting the business rules to only examine the current race and perform a random draw from 8 (or less) will lead to many anomolies over time. Some dogs will gain a more favourable draw cycle depending on their style of running while others will not. So random does not equal fair in the bigger picture. We have the technology and information to improve box allocations for all dogs to make it fair across their career and not lazily rely on using a random process that we pretend we have no control over. Indeed, integrity should mandate that the rules applied should be open and clear to all involved and aim to produce a fair outcome on box allocation across a dog's racing career.
Mark Staines Australia (Verified User) Posts 4499 Dogs 70 / Races 14 01 Aug 2023 02:59
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A saying that has been around forever !
It's only a RORT if your not in it !
Mark Wilcox Australia (Verified User) Posts 264 Dogs 1 / Races 0 01 Aug 2023 20:03
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I hear all that but all i can say is in my last 49 starters i have drawn box 1 only 1 time bring back the old way it could not be any worse for me .
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