| THE STAYING PUZZLE PRELUDE At the beginning of this thread I listed my doubts about some aspects of the staying caper and then posed some questions: 1. Is this trend a good or bad thing or just part of a cycle?
2. Exactly why is it happening?
3. What will reverse the trend?
4. Why are the majority of stayers incapable of repeating good runs after a 7 days break? We then heard a few interesting replies, but mostly a torrent of personal abuse, diversions, inept one-liners and outright lies which added nothing to the discussion but told you a lot about the speakers. They were neatly summarised by one respondent who told me You wouldnt know what a good track is because youre not a trainer. Wow! This from a stream of trainers who have overseen in silence a long progression of disruptive and sometimes dangerous tracks over several decades. My guess is that not a single one of them would have the means and the ability to properly analyse what was actually happening at those tracks. I have been doing it professionally 24/7 for many years and am flat out just keeping up. But thats just the tip of the iceberg. I am also concerned about the industrys management, the culture of participants (see also WDA report), the level of rewards to the same participants, increasing real costs (see VGOBTA complaints), excessive regulation, the massive decline in serious punter numbers, the degradation of betting opportunities, the poor public image and, fairly obviously, the huge loss of dogs as breeding has fallen away. All that is outside this brief but it does create the greyhound racing climate that exists today. Strangely, I am also accused of being anti-racing, which sounds very odd to someone who has invested over half his life in the sport. I suppose thats a penalty for pointing out stuff that others choose to ignore. Its real, and it is important. Ignore it at your peril. THE CHALLENGE We have just been looking into the state of the art so far as it concerns (a) the stamina of the breed in general and (b) the contentious question of stayers backing up after only a 7-day rest. (A) STAMINA The first point (stamina) is the difficult one because all we can use to judge are actual race performances over several years. However, long term changes are not easy to identify as different dogs are competing over the period, in some cases tracks have changed, and both breeding and training practices have varied. Additionally, we cant be sure how hard some owners or trainers have tried to condition their dogs for longer trips or, alternatively, whether they have remained happy with shorter trips, perhaps for short term economic reasons. Still, we heard some views put that 500m racers are weakening, too, which would automatically throw doubt on performances over longer trips. In addition, many clubs have added ultra-short trips to their programs, allegedly because trainers asked for them. Typically, the average greyhound reaches its top overall speed over about 435m, after which that speed steadily falls. Each rise in distance cuts out a significant sector of the population, leaving very few to compete well over 700m. Even fewer are available now as the total population has itself dropped alarmingly since 2015 (and was slowly declining before that). It shows no sign of a return to former glory, despite hopeful but misleading statements by state authorities. (Current estimates are that some 10,000 dogs are racing at the moment, compared to 14,000 or more a few years ago. Litter numbers are around half of what they were prior to 2015). Relevant to that point is that recent measures to import (stronger?) bloodlines, mostly from USA, have demonstrated improved performances and breeding successes. This is outside my pay grade but it warrants serious study in its own right. Suffice to say that, outside of a tiny handful of top dogs, the performances over 700m or so have been moderate at best, generally inconsistent and a take-it-in-turns pattern applies. Whether this is a product of a long term cycle or not requires more study than we can offer here. To digress a little, it is notable that thoroughbred racing has experienced a long term decline in the number and competence of locally bred stayers, an increase in tougher imports from New Zealand and Europe and a reduction in the distances of many traditional staying races so as to better suit available contenders. In contrast, the numbers and prize money of short races has increased. This suggests a fundamental shift in owners objectives and perhaps some commonality with greyhound racing practice. (B) BACKING-UP Considerable doubt exists about the ability of the breed at large to repeat staying performances over 7-day intervals. Some can, most cannot. A list of random examples of good and bad runs is shown at the bottom of this summary. All involve high quality greyhounds. Beyond that, I have regularly run before-and-after time comparisons for fields in heat/final series over the last decade or so (several of which have been evidenced on these pages). Every single one shows a majority of performances declining in the second week. Its never going to be a black and white situation. We can have doubts about the dog which fades because it realises it has run out of puff and simply stops chasing hard. On the other hand, the next dog may well keep going flat out and thereby drain its resources. In that group would be the LAW type who puts in a gutbuster (in Dr Kohnkes terminology) and therefore requires extra time to refill the tanks. Tacitly, greyhound administrations have recognised that situation in small ways by banning back-ups on the same or successive days, and similarly for coursing events. The degree is different but the principle is the same. Clearly, welfare is seen as a prime factor. Along the same lines, Victorian stewards have periodically queried trainers about the reason for a high frequency racing pattern they have no power to do anything about it but they asked anyway. At the other end of the scale, similar reasoning has presumably been applied to Marathon races (800m-plus) which have now disappeared from the calendar. (I say presumably because I have never seen an official announcement). According to reviews of their subsequent six months performances, these were often ruinous to the individual dogs career. Overlaying these factors are queries about the varying degree of preparation each dog has had as well as its recent racing experience (over sprint, middle or long distances). More detail is required. In the end, the common practice of demanding repeat performances over 7 days for feature or other staying events is fraught with danger to gamblers, punters and the dogs themselves. The risks are unavoidable the only question is whether those risks are worthwhile. TO CONCLUDE The premise of this thread is that staying races are a good thing because they help sustain the strength of the breed and because they are more popular with the paying public. However, those aims are not being met well. While I have useful evidence of the WHAT on these subjects, I cannot advise much about the WHY. That would require forensic examination of more facts and more trends than I can provide, especially from breeding and training angles. Nevertheless, there is ample evidence of the need for such a review to be conducted by an independent team representative of several disciplines. Immediately, I would take up one solution put up by a couple of contributors. Prize money should be changed to introduce a stronger bias in favour of longer races while downgrading any racing at or below 400m. The incentive to trainers would be clearer. There is nothing to lose and everything to gain in doing that. But it is best done over, say, a five year period with results regularly assessed. * * * * * SOME BACKGROUND Trying to get a wider picture on prominent stayers back-up experience I searched first through Sandown Cup records and, when not available, through other major distance series to get a picture of how they handle the demand. XYLIA ALLEN
Spk 41.70, 31 Jul 08, 41.90, 7 Aug 08. 0.20 Slower
Also see WPK and BGC series for comparable slowing pattern TORNADO TEARS
Cann 41.25, 16 Mar 18, 42.13 23 Mar 18. 0.92 Slower
Spk 41.27, 16 May 18, 42.44, 24 May 18. 1.31 Slower
Spk 41.20, 22 Nov 18, 41.85, 29 Nov 18. 0.25 Faster
A former champion, now fading. (Not suitable for breeding). FANTA BALE
Spk 41.78, 17 Nov 17, 41.98, 24 Nov 17. 0.20 Slower REIDYS RUNNER
Cann 42.80, 1 6 Nov 18, 43.21, 7 Dec 18. 0.41 Slower
Other examples available at Cannington. BELLS ARE RINGIN
Spk 42.31, 19 May 16, 42.02, 26 May 16. 0.29 Faster
Note both times are at the moderate end of the scale. IRMA BALE
Spk 41.92, 16 May 13, 42.10 23 May 13. 0.18 Slower CHINATOWN LAD
Spk 42.17, 8 May 08, 42.14, 15 May 08. 0.03 Faster
Times both moderate. SWEET IT IS
Spk 41.82, 14 May 15, 41.49, 21 May 15. 0.33 Faster BOBBY BOUCHEAU
Spk 41.67, 19 May 11, 41.57 26 May 11. 0.11 Faster SARGENT MAJOR
Spk 42.33, 11 May 06, 42.50 19 May 06. 0.17 Slower.
Painfully slow times from a normal leader. BEST QUOTED
Spk 42.23, 12 May 05, 42.33 19 May 05. 0.10 Slower
Both times slow.
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