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Simon Moore Australia (Verified User) Posts 2366 Dogs 32 / Races 393 19 Dec 2019 01:03
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it doesn't suit his argument to give the proper facts, lol.
Kevin Wright Australia (Verified User) Posts 5708 Dogs 1 / Races 1 19 Dec 2019 01:11
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Bruce Teague wrote:
Ryan,
You regularly ask for more proof, and more proof, and more proof, of the difficulties some stayers have with short back-ups. Here is some more info I wrote related to the 2016 Sandown Cup. (Courtesy ARG).
Revealing the Sandown Cup facts
Three distance races were run on Cup night the Cup, a Listed race and a 4/5th Grade. The 24 runners had all competed in Cup heats a week earlier. Below is a comparison of the times they ran in the two events.
Sandown Cup 1. Who Dey 2.7 lengths 2. Dublin Bull + 2.6 lengths 3. No Donuts + 13.0 lengths 4. Wind Whistler + 4 .0 lengths 5. Bells are Ringin 4.1 lengths 6. Luna Jinx + 5.4 lengths 7. Zipping Kane + 5.8 lengths 8. Kilkee Flex + 3.9 lengths
Listed Cup Night Stayers 1. Mepunga Rosie + 0.4 lengths 2. Dr Leonardo + 0.9 lengths 3. Gunmetal Rebel + 14.1 lengths 4. Brazen Bomber + 8.4 lengths 5. Beks 2.9 lengths 6. Rynos Raider 3.4 lengths 7. Esparza + 1.9 lengths 8. Ring The Bell + 5.0 lengths
So six runners actually improved their times, including the three winners, mostly due to better boxes or comparisons with very slow runs in the heats. But 18 dogs, or 75% of the total, did worse. That is consistent with all the other studies I have done over recent years.
Conclusions
1. Most dogs cannot handle two distance races in seven days. The fact that a minority can do it is no excuse for chancing the arm in a vain hope of winning some prize money.
2. As well as running welfare risks, the practice will mislead punters.
3. Computer grading programs should be adjusted to prevent the practice.
4. Clubs should change their race programming.
5. Racing authorities should initiate studies to better determine the impact of racing more often or over longer trips.
6. They should also examine any longer term effects.
Bruce ... Have you heard about ION'S ....Different weather conditions effect the ION'S in-the air . Negative and positive ION'S play a huge part when a track record is broken . Going by 50 years of Data 80% of track records get broken when there is positive ION'S in the air and this allows an extra 5% of oxygen to the blood stream at any given moment its a bit like when you go outside after or before a thunderstorm the air is full of positive and negative Ion's in the air all bouncing around doing the ION dance ..
I am trying to work out how i can bottle the positive ION'S so that i can give it to my dog like a natural EPO and yes i am looking for investors in this research Bruce ....are u in
Mark Donohue Australia (Verified User) Posts 3236 Dogs 6 / Races 0 19 Dec 2019 03:22
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Mark Donohue wrote:
You defeat your argument about the seven day back-up straight away because they both backed-up and the winner won in reasonably good time. Blazing Carter got around the track better than TT with the latter receiving a few checks along the way (Such Is Life). No wonder you dont punt / gamble anymore. Youre just not seeing it.
Bump
Bruce Teague Australia (Verified User) Posts 2092 Dogs 0 / Races 0 19 Dec 2019 06:01
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Ryan,
You can be a bit hairy with some of your factoids so I can't put much credence on your May 2016 story.
For example, BOM says in May there was "Close to average rainfall at most sites across Melbourne.
Secondly, you forgot to mention that rain often helps to speed up tracks. If you check your local club you will find they water it a lot.
Thirdly, you and all the negative commentators completely forgot that in 2016 I was still up and running my database and naturally the times I used would have been corrected for the state of the track in each of those two weeks, so that shoots down your comment immediately.
Fourthly, you comment on the ones that went slower (75%) but not on the 25% that went quicker. That hardly suggests a slow track.
Your logic is in very short supply.
Anyway, this is the umpteenth time I have offered more proof - as you demanded. There is plenty more available as we go back thru history but it is plain you are never going to be satisfied so I may not bother.
Why not concentrate on the subject rather than trying to knock me? And other commentators would do better to check out your factoids before entering the discussion. Or even ask your huge group of keen form students/punters for advice?
Kev,
Nice try. I understand that ION theory works well on the sand flats in Utah or even Woomera. However, it probably won't work when the humidity is significant, which is why they go to Utah in the first place. The skiing is marvellous there due to the clouds moving across deserts and then dumping snow on the mountains at night. Those little crystals are nearly dried out by the time that happens, hence the light fluffy powder. (PS: that's not a theory but personal experience over several visits. I recommend Alta Lodge at the Alta resort in Cottonwood Canyon, just out of Salt lake City and serviced by city buses. are u in?)
Since Melbourne weather is always unpredictable you may be on a loser there. Alice Springs might be a possibility.
Simon Moore Australia (Verified User) Posts 2366 Dogs 32 / Races 393 19 Dec 2019 06:23
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no wonder nobody starts a topic anymore.
can they make a forum just for him and the rest of us can use this one please?
i'm not joking.
Kevin Wright Australia (Verified User) Posts 5708 Dogs 1 / Races 1 19 Dec 2019 07:13
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Bruce Teague wrote:
Ryan,
You can be a bit hairy with some of your factoids so I can't put much credence on your May 2016 story.
For example, BOM says in May there was "Close to average rainfall at most sites across Melbourne.
Secondly, you forgot to mention that rain often helps to speed up tracks. If you check your local club you will find they water it a lot.
Thirdly, you and all the negative commentators completely forgot that in 2016 I was still up and running my database and naturally the times I used would have been corrected for the state of the track in each of those two weeks, so that shoots down your comment immediately.
Fourthly, you comment on the ones that went slower (75%) but not on the 25% that went quicker. That hardly suggests a slow track.
Your logic is in very short supply.
Anyway, this is the umpteenth time I have offered more proof - as you demanded. There is plenty more available as we go back thru history but it is plain you are never going to be satisfied so I may not bother.
Why not concentrate on the subject rather than trying to knock me? And other commentators would do better to check out your factoids before entering the discussion. Or even ask your huge group of keen form students/punters for advice?
Kev,
Nice try. I understand that ION theory works well on the sand flats in Utah or even Woomera. However, it probably won't work when the humidity is significant, which is why they go to Utah in the first place. The skiing is marvellous there due to the clouds moving across deserts and then dumping snow on the mountains at night. Those little crystals are nearly dried out by the time that happens, hence the light fluffy powder. (PS: that's not a theory but personal experience over several visits. I recommend Alta Lodge at the Alta resort in Cottonwood Canyon, just out of Salt lake City and serviced by city buses. are u in?)
Since Melbourne weather is always unpredictable you may be on a loser there. Alice Springs might be a possibility.
Bruce so does that mean you will not be backing my ION in a bottle idea ... My Research goes back to the 80s ..Thats a shame i need a good PR person Bruce ..
Ryan Vanderwert Australia (Verified User) Posts 5957 Dogs 8 / Races 0 19 Dec 2019 07:32
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I've gotta laugh at the ridiculousness of your comments.
I was actually there on Sandown Cup nite (rareity) only because Brent Sullivan kindly asked me to join his group for dinner.....and it rained throughout the night.
When I did the form the next day I rated the track almost 3 lens slow for those distance races. I cld provide my adjusted time ratings for the stayers I rated on those two nights if you wld like?
It wld make for an interesting comparison if it were a dry nite but for the rain causing other issues to dogs with far more sand kicked in their face maybe resulting in less than normal chase for example, wld likely skew the argument bringing in more variables. Unlikely I'll be able to get to it before xmas anyway but with it being wet is there much point ?
I cannot believe you didn't even bother to watch a replay from Sandown Cup night to chk the condition of the track before you made your last post. A simple watch of a race replay on Sandown Cup nite 2016 shld have prompted you to make a far better response. As usual of late it didn't - extremely disappointing!
You make some absolutely blatant errors and conclusions on what you think you may know without simply double checking your facts before sending it to print, which in turn wld greatly enhance rather than severely diminishing your credibility on this site. How stiff are you picking a nite when I was there ? I'll tell you what, if anyone was still thinking of believing anything you say, I doubt anyone will now.
btw you sound great when you write, pity the content is mostly tripe lately as evidenced in this instance.
Mark Donohue Australia (Verified User) Posts 3236 Dogs 6 / Races 0 19 Dec 2019 08:33
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Bruce Teague wrote:
Ryan,
Thirdly, ........ I was still up and running my database and naturally the times I used would have been corrected for the state of the track in each of those two weeks, so that shoots down your comment immediately.
Oh, naturally ..... but was it?? Could the wrong information been entered? Oh, no!
Sandro Bechini Australia (Verified User) Posts 19488 Dogs 15268 / Races 1856 19 Dec 2019 10:30
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Ryan Vanderwert wrote:
I've gotta laugh at the ridiculousness of your comments.
I was actually there on Sandown Cup nite (rareity) only because Brent Sullivan kindly asked me to join his group for dinner.....and it rained throughout the night.
When I did the form the next day I rated the track almost 3 lens slow for those distance races. I cld provide my adjusted time ratings for the stayers I rated on those two nights if you wld like?
It wld make for an interesting comparison if it were a dry nite but for the rain causing other issues to dogs with far more sand kicked in their face maybe resulting in less than normal chase for example, wld likely skew the argument bringing in more variables. Unlikely I'll be able to get to it before xmas anyway but with it being wet is there much point ?
I cannot believe you didn't even bother to watch a replay from Sandown Cup night to chk the condition of the track before you made your last post. A simple watch of a race replay on Sandown Cup nite 2016 shld have prompted you to make a far better response. As usual of late it didn't - extremely disappointing!
You make some absolutely blatant errors and conclusions on what you think you may know without simply double checking your facts before sending it to print, which in turn wld greatly enhance rather than severely diminishing your credibility on this site. How stiff are you picking a nite when I was there ? I'll tell you what, if anyone was still thinking of believing anything you say, I doubt anyone will now.
btw you sound great when you write, pity the content is mostly tripe lately as evidenced in this instance.
Ryno
Can't you work it out yet?
These are all convoluted excuses for not being successful at punting?
Good at talking, he just doesn't understand the sport.
Gotta blame something.
May as well blame the whole sport for not being able to pick any more winners.
Boo-Effing-Hoo
Ryan Vanderwert Australia (Verified User) Posts 5957 Dogs 8 / Races 0 19 Dec 2019 11:58
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Sandro, I must admit he had me with the initial observation , it's something I hadn't really considered so I bit, waiting for the evidence to unfold. So little of it came and it was evidence anyone off the street cld have got and not that of a knowledgeable dog punter(not one I'm used to anyway), and so fragile........in May there was "Close to average rainfall at most sites across Melbourne .wtf is that when you're trying to rate a track on a particular race nite ?
If I hadda made a statement like that to my mentor Kenny Mac, he wlda torn me a new one.
Look I try to take anything anyone says about greyhounds seriously as it's such an important time for the sport, and I'll listen to anyone, especially those that make claims they can prove, but this guy I just cannot work out, his detail is bordering on non existent in this topic when pressed.......worse, appearing to cast dispersions on the industry with his conclusions which stem from this non existent, tragically misinterpreted evidence....at the end of the day it's my own fault for letting him take me so far down the road with it.
My apologies to you guys for having to sit thru it.
Michael Geraghty Australia (Verified User) Posts 4138 Dogs 14 / Races 15 19 Dec 2019 12:21
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Ryan,
Sometimes it's hard to see the forest...
Glad you have finally seen through the trees.(weeds)
Tally ho ho ho.
Sandro Bechini Australia (Verified User) Posts 19488 Dogs 15268 / Races 1856 19 Dec 2019 21:13
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Ryan Vanderwert wrote:
Sandro, I must admit he had me with the initial observation , it's something I hadn't really considered so I bit, waiting for the evidence to unfold. So little of it came and it was evidence anyone off the street cld have got and not that of a knowledgeable dog punter(not one I'm used to anyway), and so fragile........in May there was "Close to average rainfall at most sites across Melbourne .wtf is that when you're trying to rate a track on a particular race nite ?
If I hadda made a statement like that to my mentor Kenny Mac, he wlda torn me a new one.
Look I try to take anything anyone says about greyhounds seriously as it's such an important time for the sport, and I'll listen to anyone, especially those that make claims they can prove, but this guy I just cannot work out, his detail is bordering on non existent in this topic when pressed.......worse, appearing to cast dispersions on the industry with his conclusions which stem from this non existent, tragically misinterpreted evidence....at the end of the day it's my own fault for letting him take me so far down the road with it.
My apologies to you guys for having to sit thru it.
Au contraire mon ami
It was compelling in watching to see how much sh!te he would spin to try and prove his point in the face of facts and experience
Bruce Teague Australia (Verified User) Posts 2092 Dogs 0 / Races 0 19 Dec 2019 22:42
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I note you guys are prone to support anyone who disagrees with me but you still fail to address the facts.
I displayed - many times - actual comparisons between heats and final (which is primarily what this thread is about) all corrected for the state of the track. In addition I offered four other comments.
Only one attracted a response - a general statement from BOM which did no more than set the scene for the area. Hardly vital.
The other three points are ignored/unanswered as are the actual data I supplied for the 24 runners in question. I might add another one - the track was also wet and rainy for the heats in the previous week, not just for the final. As we are talking about comparisons, that is crucial.
Otherwise .....
"I should watch a replay". Who can say I did not? For a major event?
"I entered the wrong info (in the database)". Really? How would you know that. (NB I have ways of checking that just to be sure). Also note that the integrity of my form db is far superior to that of GRV or OzChase, mainly because I stop garbage getting in.
"I am an unsuccessful punter". How arrogant. Again, you have no knowledge of that. Mind you, I am a retired punter mainly because the offering is now rubbish on several counts.
"We need me removed to another forum". Well, I started the thread so it is up to you whether you read it or not or contribute.
"Track assessments". For those of you who don't understand form analysis, that process is always an estimate, not a precision instrument, no matter who does it. In any event, the vast majority of corrections are in the one to two lengths bracket.
"I made blatant errors". Where? What? All unstated.
"I don't understand greyhound racing". Fascinating - after 50 years-plus of doing form etc etc 24/7 and looking after sales and form services to several hundred customers. And visiting, talking to managers and walking the track at some 40 or so venues in the three eastern states and Tassie. Still, I am always learning.
There are a couple of other things I worry about. One is the limited range of commentators on this website. Very few punters and no leading trainers or owners. Another is the lack of real attention to the decline in many aspects of the industry. The shortage of noms is an exception but only because it is something you guys strike very day. Do I hear of campaigns or suggestions about reversing the situation? Not really.
A look in the mirror might suggest that all this stuff is critical to your future prosperity.
Sandro Bechini Australia (Verified User) Posts 19488 Dogs 15268 / Races 1856 19 Dec 2019 23:31
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More rubbish
Who do you think you are trying to throw guilt onto people by asking them to look into a mirror and throwing blame on them for not fixing the sport's problems?
Its actually you who told us that the sports problems were caused by dog trainers and breeders being in charge of the industry
Caught out again!!
And who are you to denounce the people who comment on here because they aren't the top trainers.
You wouldn't take any f@#$ing mnotice of them anyway.
You would just spin the same Sh!te to them as as you do to us.
I suggest that you take a good hard look into that mirror
There is only one reason why punters retire...it starts with L
Simon Moore Australia (Verified User) Posts 2366 Dogs 32 / Races 393 20 Dec 2019 00:29
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why on earth do u people engage with him?
i don't get it.
how many times do u need proof that u r wasting your breath?
Kevin Wright Australia (Verified User) Posts 5708 Dogs 1 / Races 1 20 Dec 2019 00:39
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simon moore wrote:
why on earth do u people engage with him?
i don't get it.
how many times do u need proof that u r wasting your breath?
Simon Its Xmas ..and Bruce needs some loven ....
Michael Geraghty Australia (Verified User) Posts 4138 Dogs 14 / Races 15 20 Dec 2019 00:51
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"I note you guys are prone to support anyone who disagrees with me but you still fail to address the facts."
You might also like to note, Tornado, that since your invasion of the GD forum, you have established world records for - most dislikes, most disagrees, least likes(pro-rata), and least agrees.(pro-rata) I'm sure there is a Guinness Book record there somewhere.
Why would that be?
Surely it's the rest of the world that is wrong and uneducated... Isn't that right, Tornado.
Bruce Teague Australia (Verified User) Posts 2092 Dogs 0 / Races 0 20 Dec 2019 02:49
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Sandro,
A very sloppy misquote ....
"Its actually you who told us that the sports problems were caused by dog trainers and breeders being in charge of the industry Caught out again!!"
HARDLY. You have twisted the statement to suit your needs. What I actually said was that I would never put trainers and breeders on the board due to an unavoidable conflict of interest. Indeed, at one stage I thought Eberand would be an exception as he had a wide background. But I was wrong - he bit the dust anyway.
And, despite my pleas, you persist in painting me as a losing punter - although you have not the faintest idea of the truth (not that it matters anyway).
Elsewhere, I notice that nobody is prepared to supply answers or comments about my queries. Nothing but abuse! That kinda proves the point.
Sandro Bechini Australia (Verified User) Posts 19488 Dogs 15268 / Races 1856 20 Dec 2019 04:35
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And now you are bagging Michael as well...even though he was declared fully innocent of all charges concerned regarding conflict of interest
I don't care what you say.
You don't punt anymore because you can;t win.
That's looking in the mirror, pal.
I am done with you, you refuse to take anything on board any logical discussion that's being discussed with you that doesn't conform to your view
Honestly, Bruce, you are now acting like a clown and becoming more ridiculous with every new post you make
Sandro Bechini Australia (Verified User) Posts 19488 Dogs 15268 / Races 1856 20 Dec 2019 04:46
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Sandro Bechini wrote:
Bruce Teague wrote:
Sandro,
I must say I am amazed at your detailed knowledge of my history, experience, abilities and punting success. You guys must have psychic capabilities.
In any event, your comments would improve no end if you actually read what I posted.
both the winner and TT were on 7 day back ups. That is precisely what I said.
they wouldn't have backed Blazing Carter either. Again, my specific point was that it has become impossible to back anything in these races due to the uncertainties. Thats not good for the industry.
Nor is it my job to help the punters. But I do try to make points or ask questions which might lead to a better industry in the future.
You guys have chosen not to make responses to the main theme here (uncertain distance racing and leading then to the questionable stamina of the breed), preferring instead to throw rocks at me personally. How does that help the industry? Why do you bother?
But keep going and tell the fans why it is stupid to take odds-on about a favourite with poor/erratic form. Or advise them never to back a dog having its first distance start (they win less than one in five despite possible good 600m form). Or insist on better odds for one-turn dogs moving up to circle tracks. And always be wary about dogs that have just had two or three poor runs in succession. And never back anything in a low quality distance race you might as well chuck an arrow at the dartboard.
All backed up by serious long term research and analysis.
Incidentally, the idea with a formguide is to actually study them carefully, not to just glance at who is training what and stick it in your back pocket. And never listen to tips, especially not on SKY.
Do you proclaim yourself as the saviour of the industry?
Greyhounds competing in races have been inconsistent since racing began, or at least since I have been involved which is in the decades now
There would be virtually less than 1% of greyhounds that race consistently over every start.
The things that you think is the destruction of the breed are just the normal challenges that trainers face to have their dogs ready to race.
There is just more attention given to backing up dogs faster to race over shorter and not developing them over longer distances
Overall the theory behind the sport hasn't changed, just its focus
You aren't coping with it and now you are making up all these issues and they have been there all along
e.g there have been low quality staying races going back 40 years and the results have always been variable, whats changed for the punter tere?
One turn dogs not handling 2 turn tracks - Whats changed for the punter there?
Nothing!!
Stop making out you know all the answers to all these supposedly 'NEW" questions about the sport and go back to applying whatever systems you had in place to back winners, then make some money and stop whinging
Wow, stayers that don't chase hard!!
Well, your serious long time research and analysis should have told you it was going on before Bunyip Bint was a sparkle in her mum's eye.
If you need help or advice about a dog you are retiring then this is the place for you.
