All of which leaves us with some serious questions.

1. Is this trend a good or bad thing or just part of a cycle?
2. Exactly why is it happening?
3. What will reverse the trend?
4. Why are the majority of stayers incapable of repeating good runs after a 7 days break?

Since I lack any expertise in the breeding game, I cant go much further. However, I offer some titbits to start the ball rolling. For convenience, I have used Victoria as a guide (minus the now closed Traralgon).

(A) Out of 39 separate trips, 30 track records (77%) were created in the last five years. None of those were for 700m+ and only six for 650m+ (including two for Burn One Down).
(B) Seven sires were responsible for 19 of those records (Magic Sprite, Brett Lee, Buck Fever, Fabregas, Knocka Norris, Barcia Bale, Bekim Bale). The remainder came from single efforts from individual sires.
(C) I could see no examples of multiple record breakers amongst the dam list.
(D) The Wheeler male lineage was responsible for 10 of the 39 records and 6 came from its females (counting only first antecedents).
(E) Nine record holders were trained by the Thompsons, four by the Daillys.

Note: in quoting the 39 track records from GRV lists, they include an error in that the Sale 520m record (Shooting Star) was run in 2008 when I recall the distance was 511m. The track was subsequently re-built, which may have helped Burn One Down run his record 650m there in 2017.

Your continued bullshit about stayers is total rubbish and maybe it has to do with the down trend in breeding over the past few years less dogs less 700 m gene pool .
We are struggling for 500 m dogs in Victoria at present maybe it has to do with Vic tracks were built for speed dogs so people bred speed with speed and this is the result you don't need to rocket scientist to work it out ...

Pay each dog $150 on top of there starters fees and then maybe people will be more tempted to extend them over further ground ...Pay a breeders incentive to encourage breeding for 500 to 700 m dogs

Des,

Yes - sorry. After I wrote that I searched for more info but could not find it anywhere. My error.

Kevin, you have reminded me of a lead-off batter whose main job is to get on first base and then trust to luck that he will go on further. That leaves him open to do whatever he wants, regardless of the coachs views. So you classified my diatribe as total rubbish and then, paradoxically, offered four answers to the problem. Thanks for those but I have to say something about the third one - $150 more prize money. We have been doing that for some years now in virtually all states and it has not worked. Indeed, the two latest changes (Horsham and Traralgon) do not even have a middle distance option at all.

Jamie, you may be right in part but your examples can be a bit suss. Since the days (long, long ago) of your three full forwards, the game, the rules and the coaching methods have changed radically. For example, Riewoldt (Jack) and Franklin now often play much further up the ground, thereby preventing them from achieving the 100 goal mark. (Likewise Churchill revolutionised the full-back position in NRL and attracted many imitators). Warne and Murali were Miata-like freaks whose skills may never be repeated, but many are trying (Smith was one when he first got picked for NSW as a bowling all-rounder) and specialist coaches are working overtime to help them including Warne himself.

So, sure, cyclic outcomes are to be expected but what worries me is that the pattern is being allowed to grow like Topsy and no-one is doing much about it. There is a big difference between a cycle and a long term downward trend.

Also, Kevin raises a key point when he points out that 500m performances are often shakey that is, the ordinary performances over 700m are also reflected in shorter trips as well, hence the decade-long push for increasing numbers of 300m and 400m races. That says there is an overall weakness in the breeds stamina.

Back to the real issue: the mob loves longer races but they are getting fewer of them and what is left is of dubious quality. The customer is always right. Sadly, we have lost him.

120 responses and 3,911 views hey?
Now we know how you measure your own success. G-data stats.

Bruce you haven't come close to proving point 4

Re "btw you haven't come close to proving point 4".

I can't believe you said that. I have never come across a significant heat/final where it has not been true - the last time in the Sydney Cup where all but one runner ran worse time. I think I showed there was an average drop away of 6.5 lengths. I advised I have all the numbers to support my case. On the other hand, you have offered no proof that the reverse is true.

Even so, to illustrate some points each time, I have made several comments here on the Association Cup, Sydney Cup and Stayers PopGun. Every one of them turned out to be spot on. I didn't bet but I was correct not to, which is just as important as having a bet.

As for losing a decent bet - talking about Win bets of say $300 or more - I cannot remember the last time one of those lost. However, I would have lost lots of smaller bets (which do add up), primarily because they would have been Trifectas or First Fours where the expected winning chance would be much less. Of course, dividends became much smaller after TABCORP introduced Mysteries, after which I realised mathematically that punting was no longer a practicable option. So I stopped.

Otherwise, you have blotted your once immaculate copybook by trying to psychoanalyse me. That's off topic mate.

Jamie, Don't forget that Riewoldt now has a big mate with him and both are very accurate kicks for goal and he has Dusty to use as a weapon as well. So the coach is able to spread the wealth to support the overall team. In most of these cases, a single option is usually not as profitable as he gets double teamed (not Plugger though - he would knock both out of the action. Incidentally, he seems to have lost a lot of weight recently).

By the way, those 120 and 3911 numbers were in response to another bloke who said we were all doomed because I was here. The numbers suggest the reverse.

As I've said to you on another topic, you need to ability rate each run taking into account the speed of the track and checks in the run from one week to the next to convince me of that point. Average times just don't do that, so I will remain unconvinced.

I wldn't even consider putting a race like the topgun stay race into my figures if I was trying to prove a point to anyone due to what happened in that race, but that's just me.

Since you brought it up, I'm aware of the euphoria resulting from getting form right, however most punters who do form seriously tend to come back to earth with a one off huge loss, then are far more aware of the pitfalls of form as well. You on the other hand are either one of the gr8'est punters of all time or haven't had huge one off loss(at least 10x your win bet). No psycho analysis required there, just a case of 'been there done that' is humbling.

Ryan,

I just gave you the most recent backup example. How much do you want? (If it is in Vic then OK but elsewhere it is hard to pull up OzChase data).

In those cases, it has nothing to do with average times - you are plucking that out from another subject. The backing up deal is simply Run A v Run B, eg BMR was 41.65 v 42.00.

Yes I agree the TopGun was a mess but that was not up for discussion for the 7-day factor (only two of the 8 had such recent runs and ran poorly anyway).

Sorry, I have never had "one huge one off loss" just lots of smaller ones. However, I have had two half head wins for big dough - Credibility @ 3/1 (v Jessica Casey and South Road Sid) and a little black bitch @1/1 in a 700, both at Beaumont Park. Both box 1 and both a bit scary. Will that do?

Of course, those were the days when bookmakers were bookmakers.

Fireball

Tornado Tears -0.41
Dyna Chancer +0.33
Annie Lava -0.16
Weetbix Jester +0.14
Sir Jay Jay -0.01
Kanzan +0.17
Rajastan -0.08
Peppertide +0.05

Topcat Video

She Will Bloom -0.43
Kiomara +0.48
Cabin Fever +0.08
Red Rochelle +0.31
Tornado Tears +1.39
Blue Shadows +0.08
Angry Trip +0.71
Annie Lava -0.09

If you want to come on the front page and make that statement about stayers not backing up, you need to provide 40 plus dogs showing Run A vs Run B including track pace adjustments and checks. That's about as simple as it gets.....you no longer do that, so you haven't proved a thing to me.

You've got the best punting database known to mankind and your biggest straight out bet is only $300 ? Why didn't you have a red hot go at few good things ?

No use crying over spilt milk. Lets move on:

Bruce Teague wrote:

Yes I agree the TopGun was a mess but that was not up for discussion for the 7-day factor (only two of the 8 had such recent runs and ran poorly anyway).

Really, so 100% in a race that was a "mess" and you agree that shldn't statistically count, yet you mention it anyway(sounds familiar).

Bruce Teague wrote:

... the breeds stamina and distance racing capability is under stress. For example, the last two major long races the Sydney Cup and the Stayers TopGun were both won in ordinary to average times.

isn't that an implication derived from "the 7 day back up"(Top Gun stay race included) ?

Bruce Teague wrote:

OK, the stayers Popgun race pretty well finishes off anything we can say - the winner running some 12 lengths slower than the record - and another 7 lengths for TT, which may have wanted to be somewhere else. Aside from the 7 day backup issue......

That comment suggests the Top Gun Stayers race was up for discussion for the 7-day factor and contradicts you saying it wasn't. Your words Bruce.

This is disappointing. You are cherry picking words from one paragraph and inserting them in another.

This thread is about staying abilities in general and incidentally includes comments about 7-day back ups, which is just one part of the larger subject.

I explicitly stated the TopGun was not relevant to the second matter because only two of the starters had raced within that limit.
You can't mix oranges and apples.

You then state "your biggest straight out bet is only $300" when actually I said "talking about Win bets of say $300 or more", so obviously you are not taking much care. But why would you do that and what does it have to do with the price of fish?

You then asked for more evidence (than the Sydney Cup) so I went to some trouble to pull out the previous two heat/final examples and put them up here. You asked and I gave them to you. Given time, I could produce dozens more (and have done so in articles), all underpinning the same principle - that most stayers cannot repeat a performance 7 days later. Most, not all.

So I have a decade-long string of evidence to support my proposal while you have only an opinion plucked out of who knows where.

As for the question of track speed ... I did not assess that for the current examples because I have shut down my database. However, informal crosschecking suggests there was little or no difference between the heats and finals in these cases.

End of that discussion.

* * * * *

You have now introduced yet another factor - that of correcting for various levels of interference met by each runner in their past or present lives. Apparently, you want to make adjustments along those lines.

I am well aware that some people (including Sure Pick) do that routinely and good luck to them. I don't, and it has never been a feature of GreyBase programs for a few reasons.

1. It is subjective as to who did what and by how much - ie a guess.
2. Commonly, dogs which get into bother tend to do it regularly - ie they are that sort of racer, not good field dogs.
3. In my assessment process it is normal to omit the worst of X number of runs on the ground that it probably does not represent a true picture of a dog's ability. They are not robots.
4. Being held up - or suffering some relatively minor interference - does not necessarily stop a dog producing an overall good performance. Sure, it does not help but it may also mean that the dog still has petrol left in the tank to use later in the race, as opposed to an LAW dog which is pulling out all the stops throughout the race and will therefore tend to weaken in the home straight.

These aspects, and many others, are not plucked out of the sky but are the results of intensive statistical analysis over periods of trial and error in thousands of races at dozens of tracks.

In the same bracket, you can put 2nd sectionals and run-home times, both of which are of no help in predicting future outcomes. As such, serious treatment of 1st sectionals and overall times offer the best we can do. But always be wary of sectional data from Tasmania or sometimes Wenty or from tracks where the club/authority does not bother to collect them. Also keep an eye out for GRV form which fails to highlight adequately both sectional and overall times for handicap races. GIGO applies.

* * * * *

Not mentioned on any of the posts on this thread is the question of how best to train a dog, or which dogs, to compete over 600m or 700m - ie beyond the conventional or average capability of a greyhound.

We need this intelligence, if only to separate economic and related factors from the natural strength of the breed. Indeed, it is exactly the sort of thing that racing authorities should be looking into - ie the long term effect.

(Bless him, for all his foibles, Kevin is the only bloke who gets even close to that).

Now why would any trainer come on here and explain how to train a 700m dog?

Let me tell you something Bruce. Authorities either don't care what trainer think, or they only care what the top trainers think.
I have had a phone discussion with the chief. I believe with all my heart that rearing is the most important part of a dogs career and I have said that consistently on here. I also said that to him. He responded by telling me what PAW said about breeding.
I told the chief that PAW also rears all of his own dogs. The chief said 'no he doesn't, his wife does'

The intelligence is out there.
The authorities are not interested in it.
It's not a trainers priority to tell a mug punter how to train a 700m dog.
But if you ever get your license and would like to learn, I'll happily tell you some things that I think helps a dog to run distance.

You are wasting your time and effort

He only wants to listen to his own pontifications