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Adam Hatcher Australia (Verified User) Posts 149 Dogs 1 / Races 0 05 Feb 2013 08:49
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Hi All. Has anyone lately in modern times pulled off a good betting plunge on one of there dogs, How was it acheived. Bookmaker or TAB or TAB fixed odds. I personally love a punt and love hearing of good stories relating to a good old fashion plonk. With 100s of dog races each week sureley someone out there is in front.
Aaron Perry (Verified User) Posts 141 Dogs 11 / Races 8 05 Feb 2013 09:02
isnt each way $5 & $2?? yet a $9 shot is showing $1.98 a place $10 shot $2.10 a place
they are a joke and thats all there is to it
Gavin Douglas Higgin Australia (Verified User) Posts 418 Dogs 1 / Races 0 07 Feb 2013 03:12
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The fixed odds place price can flucuate just like the win and there can be no link between them.
I have seen runners be $21 but $1.80 a place because they have records that suggest the dog "likes to run a place".
Each way - quarter odds a place is what a on course bookie would offer but those days are long gone.
Nick, Did it run a place?
Tom Woods Australia (Verified User) Posts 518 Dogs 1 / Races 0 07 Feb 2013 03:30
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16s into 170 took fixed what a day that was
Doug Taylor Australia (Verified User) Posts 1896 Dogs 22 / Races 1 07 Feb 2013 04:20
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Gavin Douglas Higgin wrote:
The fixed odds place price can flucuate just like the win and there can be no link between them.
I have seen runners be $21 but $1.80 a place because they have records that suggest the dog "likes to run a place".
Each way - quarter odds a place is what a on course bookie would offer but those days are long gone.
Nick, Did it run a place?
Not sure there's even that much science to it to be honest Gavin. If you have a look the place dividend are all slight below 1/8 odds of the win price with most of them having the win price at about 8.13 to 8.16 times the place divvy barring the favourite where the place price is even worse (or the win price better depending on which side of halfway your glass is)
Eg. 1: $5 & $1.49 - 4 divided by 0.49 the place is 8.16 so less than 1/8 the place divvy. They're all pretty consistent barring the fave 3: $2.10 & $1.13 - 1.10 divided by 0.13 is 8.46.
Considering if you do this with the books they should all be pretty much equal 4 (barring odds on win only pools) the place divvys are gross unders across the board.
If it was the ones that were backed it wouldn't be as consistent, some would be shorter and the others longer to balance the book.
Gavin Douglas Higgin Australia (Verified User) Posts 418 Dogs 1 / Races 0 07 Feb 2013 04:33
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Doug Taylor wrote:
Gavin Douglas Higgin wrote:
The fixed odds place price can flucuate just like the win and there can be no link between them.
I have seen runners be $21 but $1.80 a place because they have records that suggest the dog "likes to run a place".
Each way - quarter odds a place is what a on course bookie would offer but those days are long gone.
Nick, Did it run a place?
Not sure there's even that much science to it to be honest Gavin. If you have a look the place dividend are all slight below 1/8 odds of the win price with most of them having the win price at about 8.13 to 8.16 times the place divvy barring the favourite where the place price is even worse (or the win price better depending on which side of halfway your glass is)
Eg. 1: $5 & $1.49 - 4 divided by 0.49 the place is 8.16 so less than 1/8 the place divvy. They're all pretty consistent barring the fave 3: $2.10 & $1.13 - 1.10 divided by 0.13 is 8.46.
Considering if you do this with the books they should all be pretty much equal 4 (barring odds on win only pools) the place divvys are gross unders across the board.
If it was the ones that were backed it wouldn't be as consistent, some would be shorter and the others longer to balance the book.
You will generally find that the place % is 3 times the win % if 3 divs are being paid. If 2 divs then the % will be double the win. This would be subjext to a runner being backed only for a place.
Mark Schlegel Australia (Verified User) Posts 3168 Dogs 9 / Races 5 07 Feb 2013 04:52
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Doug Taylor wrote:
Gavin Douglas Higgin wrote:
The fixed odds place price can flucuate just like the win and there can be no link between them.
I have seen runners be $21 but $1.80 a place because they have records that suggest the dog "likes to run a place".
Each way - quarter odds a place is what a on course bookie would offer but those days are long gone.
Nick, Did it run a place?
Not sure there's even that much science to it to be honest Gavin. If you have a look the place dividend are all slight below 1/8 odds of the win price with most of them having the win price at about 8.13 to 8.16 times the place divvy barring the favourite where the place price is even worse (or the win price better depending on which side of halfway your glass is)
Eg. 1: $5 & $1.49 - 4 divided by 0.49 the place is 8.16 so less than 1/8 the place divvy. They're all pretty consistent barring the fave 3: $2.10 & $1.13 - 1.10 divided by 0.13 is 8.46.
Considering if you do this with the books they should all be pretty much equal 4 (barring odds on win only pools) the place divvys are gross unders across the board.
If it was the ones that were backed it wouldn't be as consistent, some would be shorter and the others longer to balance the book.
Fixed odds are run as a "book".....the same way a Bookmaker does it. With limited pools, they probably start the Win price at 180% and end up at an average of 120%. Place odds would start at about 400% and end up at about 350%. As a bookie working at picnics and non-tabs I can assure you that similar percentages apply there. You take one decent "smart" bet on a runner and all of a sudden you are desperately twisting out every other runner trying to even out the book a little. That's pretty hard to do when there is a very small pool of money available. You need that room to move with the percentages or you will get stung too often.
There is ZERO correlation between the win price and the place price. The bookie that sets the fixed odds markets for the TAB might rate something a $20.00 shot the win, but a $3.00 shot the place. If no-one backs it at those odds then he will twist it out......but he is betting WIN AND PLACE, not EACH WAY....so the win and place price are independent of each other.
Gavin Douglas Higgin Australia (Verified User) Posts 418 Dogs 1 / Races 0 07 Feb 2013 05:05
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Mark,
You are correct with some things....TAB fixed odds start somewhere between 125 - 135% and end up between 120 - 125%. The place odds flucuate with win the odds. I know this because I use "Dynamic Odds" which show the link between the win and place.
You are 100% correct that they are seperate books and are not each way bookmakers.
Cheers, Gavin
Mark Schlegel Australia (Verified User) Posts 3168 Dogs 9 / Races 5 07 Feb 2013 05:16
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Gavin Douglas Higgin wrote:
Mark,
You are correct with some things....TAB fixed odds start somewhere between 125 - 135% and end up between 120 - 125%. The place odds flucuate with win the odds. I know this because I use "Dynamic Odds" which show the link between the win and place.
You are 100% correct that they are seperate books and are not each way bookmakers.
Cheers, Gavin
If the place odds are following the win odds, it's only because that's the way the money is falling. With lots of pissy little $5 bets, that's generally the way it works. I guarantee you if someone had a huge place bet (and they accepted it) they would crash the place odds but the win price would probably only drop slightly.
Back to the topic at hand......I bought a dog about 6-8 months ago for a decent amount. The dog had a bacterial infection with secondary anaemia, had been running with a tear in his hammie and was slightly underweight. I cleaned him up and set him for a race at Cranbourne. He overcame trouble to win by 3.5 lengths and paid $24.90 "middle tote". We took about $15,000 off the corporates that night. :)
Gavin Douglas Higgin Australia (Verified User) Posts 418 Dogs 1 / Races 0 07 Feb 2013 05:25
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Mark Schlegel wrote:
Gavin Douglas Higgin wrote:
Mark,
You are correct with some things....TAB fixed odds start somewhere between 125 - 135% and end up between 120 - 125%. The place odds flucuate with win the odds. I know this because I use "Dynamic Odds" which show the link between the win and place.
You are 100% correct that they are seperate books and are not each way bookmakers.
Cheers, Gavin
If the place odds are following the win odds, it's only because that's the way the money is falling. With lots of pissy little $5 bets, that's generally the way it works. I guarantee you if someone had a huge place bet (and they accepted it) they would crash the place odds but the win price would probably only drop slightly.
Back to the topic at hand......I bought a dog about 6-8 months ago for a decent amount. The dog had a bacterial infection with secondary anaemia, had been running with a tear in his hammie and was slightly underweight. I cleaned him up and set him for a race at Cranbourne. He overcame trouble to win by 3.5 lengths and paid $24.90 "middle tote". We took about $15,000 off the corporates that night. :)
A larger bet can change the place odds but you find overall the % is 3 times for 3 divs and 2 times for 2 divs.
Jeff Holland Australia (Verified User) Posts 4831 Dogs 145 / Races 12 07 Feb 2013 07:08
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For win only break even is 100%
For place 3 starters break even is 300%
2 starters break even is 200%
I dont bet place, but you should find the same profit margin, as the win, meaning average percentage of break even + 20-30%
If not, they're thieves.
Nick Graham Australia (Verified User) Posts 1099 Dogs 3 / Races 0 07 Feb 2013 07:18
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Gavin Douglas Higgin wrote:
The fixed odds place price can flucuate just like the win and there can be no link between them.
I have seen runners be $21 but $1.80 a place because they have records that suggest the dog "likes to run a place".
Each way - quarter odds a place is what a on course bookie would offer but those days are long gone.
Nick, Did it run a place?
lucky for me it didnt and i didnt take the odds so i ended up winning
ive seen as you suggested a dog showing $21 a win & $1.80 a place, dog is always running on and got the cherry against barcia bale, it did what it had to
this doesnt just apply to dogs tho, its simialr with horse but not to the same stupid level
i cant compare it to non tab mettings as im sure the tab fixed odds will hold a hell of alot more per race then a full non tab meeting
they are thiefs plan and simple
another example is Essendon football club
you can get on them to win the grand final, make the 8 even the top 4...but guess who has betting suspended on them to win the wooden spoon???? YEPPPPPPPP
so i can get on essendon to make the 8 now, if they play for no points this seasons i lose automaticly..but i cant bet on them to come last???
Tab is happy not to take the risk and let you on to come last but will take the risk to let you on to finish top 8...that is a joke
and why im on the "i hate the tab" rant
last spring i backed a horse at $151 to win the melbourne cup, it needed to win its last start to get in and was $20 in that race.. i t
Nick Graham Australia (Verified User) Posts 1099 Dogs 3 / Races 0 07 Feb 2013 07:20
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Gavin Douglas Higgin wrote:
The fixed odds place price can flucuate just like the win and there can be no link between them.
I have seen runners be $21 but $1.80 a place because they have records that suggest the dog "likes to run a place".
Each way - quarter odds a place is what a on course bookie would offer but those days are long gone.
Nick, Did it run a place?
hit the wrong button
to finish my post
last spring i backed a horse at $151 to win the melbourne cup, it needed to win its last start to get in and was $20 in that race.. i thought id throw $10 on the double.. i always thought same horse doubles where halved odds, nope my ticket read $183-1 :/
as you can tell im not a fan
Adam Hatcher Australia (Verified User) Posts 149 Dogs 1 / Races 0 07 Feb 2013 07:43
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Go get'm NICK. I have hundreds of stories about those GRUBS. That garden knome MUNSIE gets on tv and radio talking his shit up. Try to get on a live sports match its suspended every bloody 10 seconds. I got on Hoover Boy Monday night at bulli. I took $6.50 fixed odds 1 minute later it was $8.00, I had a $100 on it so that cost me $150. But you dont go broke backing winners. However we will be back this Saturday doing it all over again.
Surely someone out there in greyhound world has backed there dog and had a return. Someone must have a good story. C'mon Jeff youve had more winners than ive had nookies. Tell me 1 good story PLEASE.
Tor Janes Australia (Verified User) Posts 10022 Dogs 16 / Races 0 07 Feb 2013 07:47
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I backed my bitch on anzac day a few years back when she raced at dapto in the last race, no one gave her a chance, only had $10 each way on her but she paid $25 for the win, she came down the outside and won by half a length that was a good night.
Mark Schlegel Australia (Verified User) Posts 3168 Dogs 9 / Races 5 07 Feb 2013 07:47
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adam hatcher wrote:
Surely someone out there in greyhound world has backed there dog and had a return. Someone must have a good story. C'mon Jeff youve had more winners than ive had nookies. Tell me 1 good story PLEASE.
Did you miss my post? :)
Mark Schlegel wrote:
Back to the topic at hand......I bought a dog about 6-8 months ago for a decent amount. The dog had a bacterial infection with secondary anaemia, had been running with a tear in his hammie and was slightly underweight. I cleaned him up and set him for a race at Cranbourne. He overcame trouble to win by 3.5 lengths and paid $24.90 "middle tote". We took about $15,000 off the corporates that night. :)
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