Breeding numbers have gradually, I stress have "Gradually" picked up (to the minute) by 20% since 2016. Sounds good doesn't it but we're still down on breeding by 40%, pre-2014 which we'll never see again.

In my opinion, current breeding numbers have to keep improving for another couple of years if all TAB tracks are to stay viable.
Current country tracks will only survive with hand-outs from Councils & above, as right now they would be mostly running on the smell of an oily-rag with just 6 event cards all racing over 300m. That won't cut the mustard, unfortunately.

Litters that each Australian State have been averaging between the years of 2005-2015, compared to 2017-2019 average.

State..2005-14...2017-19

NSW....1252......567 - down by 55%
VIC......1051......617 - down by 41%
QLD.....342.......166 - down by 51%
SA.......110........79 - down by 21%
WA......103........65 - down by 37%
TAS.....90..........41 - down by 55%
NZ.......129.......126 - down by 2%
Total ...3080.....1662

As you can see current breeding stats are down a massive 46.1% or 8931 pups (on AVG) compared to the 10 years between 2005-2014.....with NSW, QLD & TAS struggling the most on averages.

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Litter PERCENTAGE that each Australian State have been averaging between the years of 2005-2015, compared to the year of 2019.

State......2005-14..2019

NSW.......40.4%..32.5% - down by 20%
VIC.........33.9%..38.8% - up by 14%
QLD.......10.5%..10.7% - up by 2%
SA..........4.1%...4.4% - up by 7%
WA.........3.4%...4.3% - up by 27%
TAS........2.9%...2.2% - down by 23%
NZ..........4.6%...7.0% - up by 50%
Total.......100%..100%

As you can see when looking at the AVERAGES, NSW & TAS are struggling massively when you look at the overall picture & QLD has tried to picked up there game.
VIC has taken over as the most popular State to breed in for the first time... and NZ has simply been business as usual.

The breeding caper is a manifold issue.

First, as Steve points out, there has been a long term decline in numbers mostly shown in the comparison of the 2000s decade to the first half decade of the 2010s. Not big but significant enough.

Second, the bottom fell out of the market after the 2015 live baiting saga roughly halving numbers and so far showing little sign of renewal.

Third, there were external effects due to (a) a campaign to tidy up backyard breeders in Vic during the Stephens reign, (b) periodic help in Vic as Napthine regularly offered breeding subsidies in one form or another (but which had no impact), (c) the recent rule change restricting the activity of dams, and (d) the even more recent reduction in some fees in Vic

Fourth, faulty findings by inquiries in three states came up with claims of over-breeding which never existed see all the data over the last 20 years. Yet the reverse is actually happening even without considering the live baiting problem.

Fifth, to this day, no-one really knows why breeding is falling. There has been no proper investigation into the sector (or not publicly). Rather, some authorities have taken administrative action ie the above fee reductions and a survey in NSW of grading systems and crossed their fingers that the trend would reverse. It hasnt.

Sixth, be careful of state by state numbers. Litters tell us where the dam was resident, not where the sire lived or the cash changed hands. Breeding is a national issue.

Seventh, to some extent the current situation disguises the reality. The heavy (and successful) use of expensive top sires (Barcia Bale, Fernando Bale, USA blood, etc) tells us there is a strong demand for quality but not necessarily for quantity. Why is this so?

Eighth, Paul Wheeler has stated publicly he was going to halve his output, and then halve it again, mostly because the industry had made life too hard. I am not sure if this has happened but it is an indication of his thinking.

I have been writing about all this for several years in articles and letter to authorities but I am afraid the words have had no effect. The central reason for that is that the industry is run by administrators, not by managers who might normally read the lea leaves and take action before the problem gets too big to handle.

Incidentally, still sitting on the GWIC website is a copy of a firm NSW policy to introduce puppy bonds ie a tax on breeding dated 24 May 2018. That has not happened either so why is it still there? (My own view is that it is illegal and therefore has been pigeon holed for the moment. But it is still a worry).

Mark,

I can't imagine what my breeding habits have to do with the state of the industry (although I have four kids). My point was to emphasise what happened, who did it or did not do it, and pose the question as to why there has not been a decent investigation into the underlying reasons for the steady decline in breeding numbers. I can guess at a few things but no-one can be really sure until the research job is done independently and professionally.

I am not sure if Michelle ever told anybody anything although nominally he did oversee the building of the new WPK grandstand/offices. However, the GBOTA move from HP was effectively initiated by the Department and GBOTA itself as the latter was having trouble breaking even and the trots were (a) never keen on having them there and (b) they were looking at redeveloping the joint in various ways (which they did but it failed).

This was also the era when Lord V'Landys was running things at HP and telling the Glebe Hockey Club to go jump (they reckoned they had been promised a playing field where the car park stood). The ABC TV even did a full hour program on it.

But note that the IDC was a self-shafted deal. The basic decision to agree to 13% and 99 years was supported jointly by NCA and GBOTA and then formally signed off by the then-GRA Chairman (Maginn). That's all in court records and I have also discussed it with Phil Bell (NCA), who was there and was happy with the deal at the time. The industry could have said no.

Still, the result is the same - as you say, "30 years of negligent management" although I put it down to "non management". If there is a single reason for that it would be trying to run a commercial operation with a committee in charge. A government-appointed committee at that! To be fair, GRA had no CEO at that stage - only a "Secretary to the Board". So NCA and GBOTA effectively ran the board.

I understand your 23 Feb comments and generally agree.

However, the key question today is why a recovery has not taken place. It's easy to blame live baiting but I see more to it than that. Bear in mind that we are experiencing a different climate to that applying in the 2000s and before.

Economics, regulations, anti-racing lobbies and social practices all play a part in both supply and demand areas but we still don't know exactly how and why. Therefore, we don't know what weapons to use or where to attack. Additionally, as you will see from the current GWIC media release on the ABC re-homing commentary, everything we do is after the event - reactive, not proactive.

To offer an different example, Neds280 was an attempt to widen the audience but we still don't know whether it was successful or not and how much it cost (plenty). The PTB cannot be bothered telling us - so you can bet that it was not a great deal.

As I have said many times, the industry has two big assets: skilled trainers and high quality dogs but it is not utilising them well enough.

The big picture is that the horses have much the same problems as the greyhounds yet they are able to charge along with supporters shelling out squillions for new stock. Yes, their numbers are also very ordinary but they have still been able to maintain standards in general, introduce fresh ventures and obtain continuing (albeit off-course) support for their sector.

The trots have not done that so they are falling by the wayside. Neither has greyhounds so they survived by adding more races or just putting up short fields.

Remember the tote? That old standby. Well, last night we saw top racers at The Meadows (Mel Cup heats etc), Wenty and the Bulli Cup.
Not one of those races pulled in $10k on the NSW tote, which means punters would not have been able to see more than $5k or so before being forced to bet. That's rubbish for a proper investor.

Sure, lots may have gone the way or the corporates and Fixed Odds. But how do we know? Without serious IT gear you would have no idea what was really happening and who was offering what price. But you can bet London to a brick on that you would be getting ripped off pricewise.

The point there is that if you dumb down betting you will also dumb down the overall interest in the sport, whether breeding or whatever. It aint sexy enough.

Mark,

As I intimated, Michelle was always out on the wing because he was not to be trusted in a more prominent position. Fast, yes, but risky. That's what he took into politics, together with his name and the occupation of Wenty as part of the South Sydney electorate. Then and since, the majority of Racing Ministers were low in the pecking order so the job was usually dumped in the lap of the more junior candidates (there are exceptions but that was the majority).

Secondly, a Minister is not able to direct authorities or clubs in any but very extreme circumstances (eg sacking them for cause). In fact, they routinely tell you they must stay "at arms' length". OK, we can take that with a grain of salt but he hardly got a name as a go-getter inside or outside of politics.

On the other hand, the Department was quite prominent in those days and wound up being required to review the position of the GBOTA at HP. But that was secondary. The prime issue was still that V'Landys had long been putting pressure on GBOTA (rent, for one thing) because he (V'Landys) held the whip hand, and used it. That and other factors eventually led to GBOTA looking at red ink at the end of the year.

The Departmental paper on this was well documented at the time although I can't find the reference at the moment. However, it is entirely possible that there was a piece of paper drafted by the Department and signed by Michelle to that effect. That is often how the system works. Technically, the Minister did "direct" but only because the Department told him to do so.

Either way, the Minister/Department was simply reviewing what GBOTA had put to them - ie that they could no longer make do with their lot at HP - and therefore endorsed the GBOTA proposal to move operations to Wenty.

I doubt NCA had any input at all but obviously they would have to accept that two operators at Wenty would be more profitable than one - and the Department's supporting report agreed with that. But the prime motivation was the status of HP, not the profitability of NCA

The question of whether NCA was run well or badly was neither here nor there in this context (albeit the NCA-owned Recorder was doing OK in that era - ie 1987 - largely because Phil Bell was running things then).

Today, we all regret the fate of HP which was a huge loss to the industry (particularly to the Hunter region) and one which has never been replaced in any shape or form.

I have no particular admiration for what GBOTA does but on this occasion they had to play the cards they were dealt. They were on a hiding to nothing at HP.

12 races - 9 x 388m, 3 x 515m. Angle Park
08 races - 4 x 259m (WTF), 4 x 420m. Lismore
10 races - 9 x 431m, 1 x 520m. Ipswich Tues
10 races - 2 x 340m, 5 x 400m, 2 x 472m, 1 x 515m. Bulli Tues
11 races, 7 x 380m, 3 x 498m, 1 x 643m. Townsville
10 races, 2 x 302m, 7 x 405m, 1 490m. Mandurah
09 races, 6 x 388m, 3 x 515m. Gosford
11 races, 7 x 314, 3 x 392m, 1 x 537m. Taree
12 races, 12 x 400m. Gawler
12 races, 8 x 330m, 4 x 400m. Richmond Wed
11 races, 10 x 395m, 1 x 520m. Albion Park
10 races, 10 x 520m. WPK (premier tk)
10 races, 9 x 407m, 1 x 510m. Rockhampton
12 races, 1 x 275m, 6 x 380m, 5 x 520m. Cannington Wed
10 races - 5 x 300m, 3 x 411m, 2 x 484m. Casino
11 races, 9 x 400m, 2 x 512m. Mt Gambier
11 races, 7 x 340m, 3 x 431m, 1 x 527m. Gunnedah

180 races in total.
142 are races from 259m to 471m or 78.9%.
38 are races above 471m or 21.1%.

Only one of those "471m race & above" was a FFA (Wpk).

Even if you had a greyhound that could run a 500m, you've got next to no chance of racing it over that distance.

Less breeding = less 500m greyhounds.

Less 500m greyhounds = less races over 500m.

Less races over 500m = less opportunities for 500m greyhounds.

Less opportunities for 500m greyhounds = Victorian bound or race over 400m distances.

I have already posted these figures on another thread, but they are also relevant to what you state about less, less and less.

4/2/12 -- 19/3/12 * 490 litters Australia wide

4/2/14 -- 19/3/14 * 476 litters

4/2/16 -- 19/3/16 * 307 litters

4/2/18 -- 19/3/18 * 265 litters

4/2/20 -- 19/3/20 * 286 litters

So there are progressively far less litters being whelped, why?

In Victoria the prize money on offer is a good incentive to breed, but the number of whelpings continue to decline.

The most likely answer I see is, ( like it or not ), but as a result of evolving social habits, people are gradually becoming less interested in spending their time breeding and racing greyhounds.

Can this situation be reversed ? Suggestions please.

The latter will have assets to invest in property and hopefully be established in life and likely to have children who may gfollow them into the sport

The former, will mainly be children/grandchildren of current participants

Better grass seed prizemoney is whats needed Australia-wide to keep a recurrent flow of income to keep these people interested in training dogs

If they can;t see its worth the effort, then they won;t do it